Thanks to all the growers whom I have caught up with in person and the others whom I haven’t seen yet, who are sharing with the Summerfruit NZ team how the season is going.
While it is still early, some trends are emerging. In Hawke’s Bay, it has been warm and exceptionally dry, which is pushing forward maturity and resulting in some outstanding flavour. I am however aware that the lack of rain is affecting fruit size for those that cannot irrigate. At this stage, reports are that yields in Hawke’s Bay are considerably up on recent years.
In Cromwell, the weather has been colder than usual, which could have an impact on overall volume. However, overall, the fruit is looking amazing across Central Otago, despite the pockets of unseasonably cold weather.
As the season accelerates, I urge growers to peer over the fence, not only to assess the quality of the neighbour’s fruit but also to ensure that their neighbour is ‘doing OK’. Reports from the broader horticulture sector indicate that not all growers are faring well, even with the overall favourable growing conditions.
For accessible grower-focused advice on doing OK (health and wellbeing), Farmstrong is a good place to start: https://farmstrong.co.nz/resources
Looking across the ditch
I believe that consumer sentiment and trends in Australia outlined in a recent Hort Innovation-Neilsen consumer webinar are applicable to New Zealand, especially as our season gets fully underway.
Most Australian consumers (53%) feel worse off this Christmas than they did last Christmas, and perceive that the price of food is the cause of them feeling worse off.
The key factors involved in decisions on grocery spending are affordability, and the balance between taste and health.
In terms of Christmas, women are still the ones that plan most meals and do the shopping, although older people are influential in family get-togethers and are reluctant to make changes to family meal traditions.
Consumers buying for Christmas say they are more likely to buy food that has a ‘good’ discount/promo. This is reflected in consumer shopping trends over the past 12 months, which have seen discount retailers like Aldi and Costco increasing their market share for fresh produce sales.
In addition, online sales (including the big retailers) have increased especially for those with young kids and couples with no kids at home. That said, bricks and mortar retailers are still where more than half of fruit and vegetable sales in Australia are made.
And the outlook for 2025? More positive, because consumers will be staying in rather than going out to eat, and will be focusing on cooking for health and wellness rather than on takeaways. They will also be focusing on locally grown food, which tastes great and has not hidden nasties.
Back here
I believe it is important for Summerfruit NZ to enhance its focus on understanding and sharing insights into consumer behaviour. This is crucial not just in current and prospective export markets but also domestically, where evolving consumer trends and demographics are shaping purchasing behaviours and retail preferences.
Our industry must maintain its focus on producing the highest quality fruit, as well as remain proactive in anticipating and meeting consumer demands ahead of other fruit categories, and competitors from different producing nations.
These are topics that we will explore more at next year’s Summerfruit NZ conference: 25-26 June 2025 in Blenheim.